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Brazil Retail Report

Published OnAug, 2016
Pages64
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FormatPDF
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI View: Brazil is in the midst of the largest economic and political crisis in more than a decade. This is having an adverse impact on household incomes and consumer confidence. While a gradual recovery is expected to start in 2017, a weak labour market, elevated inflation and reduced access to consumer credit will continue weighing on the country's retail sector over the near term. As such, we expect consumer spending to remain concentrated on essential goods and services, with the preferences geared towards lower-range product categories across the board.

Key Views & Developments
-In USD terms, headline household spending is forecast to decline by 23.7% in 2016, negatively affected by the depreciation of Brazilian real against the US dollar as well as the protracted economic recession in the country. In local currency, terms total household spending is expected to register 5.3% growth during 2016. We forecast total household spending to rebound during 2017-2020, expanding by an annual average 8.3% in USD terms.
-We expect transport and food & non-alcoholic drinks to remain the two largest spending categories, accounting for 20.1% and 17.4% of the total expenditure respectively in 2020.

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Headline Retail Forecast ..... 11
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . . 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) . 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink And Tobacco ... 20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . . 21
Clothing And Footwear ...... 21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) . . 22
Household Goods ..... 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Brazil 2013-2020) . 29
Demographic Forecast ........ 30
Table: Total Population (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . . 33
Table: Population: Babies (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . 33
Table: Population: Young Children (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . . 34
Table: Population: Children (Brazil 2013-2020) . 34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . . 34
Table: Population: Young People (Brazil 2013-2020) . 35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . . 35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Brazil 2013-2020) . . 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (Brazil 2013-2020) . . 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Brazil 2013-2020) . . 37
Table: Population: Urban (Brazil 2013-2020) . . . 37
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 38
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index ... 38
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 . . 38
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index ... 39
Rewards ........ 39
Risks .... 40
Market Overview ... 41
Latest Updates 41
Competitive Landscape . 47
Clothing And Footwear ...... 47
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 47
Household Goods ..... 48
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 48
Electronics .... 49
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers . 49
Department Stores .... 49
Table: Selected Department Stores . . . 49
E-Commerce .. 50
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers . . . . . 50
Pharmacies .... 50
Table: Selected Pharmacies/ Drugstores . . . 50
Glossary ........ 51
Methodology . 58
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 58
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 64
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