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Brazil Oil and Gas Report

Published OnSep, 2016
Pages133
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Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over the next decade. However, production growth will be limited by declining investment funds and continued headwinds from the corruption scandal and ongoing political crisis. As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstream segments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatory environment.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:
-On August 11, national oil company (NOC) Petrobras reported a USD106mn profit in its Q216 results, representing a 38% y-o-y decline. The fall was attributed to a weaker exchange rate, which increased interest expenses, coupled with a rise in operational expenses. Petrobras will remain focused on streamlining its operations, with a particular aim of boosting efficiencies at its most promising upstream assets. Furthermore, the NOC will increasingly direct its efforts toward ensuring long-term production growth, suggesting a reassessment of its heavily state-led approach.
-Petrobras also announced it would reduce its 2016 capex plan by USD2.5bn in an effort to reduce the size of its USD1

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends ..... 11
Upstream Projects ..... 17
Table: Brazil - Key Upstream Projects . . . 17
Upstream Production - Oil ... 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive) . . . 34
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . . 34
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . . 35
Upstream Production - Gas .. 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends ..... 36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . . 39
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . . 39
Refining . 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends ..... 40
Table: Brazilian Refineries 42
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes . 44
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . . 44
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . . 45
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends ..... 45
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) . . 48
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) . . 49
Gas Consumption ...... 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends ..... 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) . 53
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) . 53
Trade - Oil ...... 54
Crude Trade Forecasts ....... 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends ..... 54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2020) . 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) . 57
Refined Fuels Forecasts ..... 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends ..... 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) . . 58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) . . 59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends ..... 59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . 62
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . 62
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 63
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index .... 63
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index . . 63
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings ... 64
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts ........ 65
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 66
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit .. 68
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 70
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index ... 71
Market Overview ... 74
Brazil Energy Market Overview ..... 74
Overview/State Role 74
Licensing And Regulation ... 75
Licensing Rounds ... 76
International Energy Relations ..... 80
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 82
Oil Refineries . 82
Table: Brazil - Total Refining Capacity . . 82
Service Stations ....... 86
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 87
Oil Pipelines .. 87
LNG Terminals ........ 87
Gas Pipelines . 88
Competitive Landscape . 91
Table: Brazil - Total Crude Production By Company, 2015 . 91
Table: Brazil - Total Natural Gas Production By Company, 2015 92
Company Profile .... 93
Brazil -Petrobras: Above Ground Obstacles Will Hinder Growth Strategy .... 93
Table: Petrobras Areas Of Upstream Operations . . 98
Shell Brasil .... 101
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil . . . 102
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn . . . 103
Repsol . 104
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil . . . 105
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn . . 105
Statoil do Brasil ...... 107
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil . . . 108
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn . . 108
Chevron Brasil ........ 109
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil . . . 110
Table: Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) . . 110
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo 111
Table: Table: Current Upstream Assets . 112
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn . . . 112
Regional Overview ....... 113
Latin America Overview .... 113
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 . . . . 124
Glossary ...... 126
Table: Glossary Of Terms 126
Methodology ........ 128
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 128
Source ........ 130
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 130
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 132
Table: Weighting . . . . 133
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