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Brazil Power Report

Published OnJul, 2016
Pages69
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FormatPDF
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI View: We maintain that the Brazilian electricity market will offer opportunities to risk-tolerant project developers and power sector investors over the coming years, despite the country's deepening economic recession in 2016. The renewables and hydropower sectors will present the biggest potential to international investors, but we see opportunities also in power transmission and distribution. We also highlight, however, that lower power consumption, coupled with high financing and import costs will be significant risks to operating in the country in the short run.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
-Brazil's economic crisis has started to reduce investment in new power projects and to threaten the implementation of those already planned, as a result of a contraction in power consumption and higher financing and import costs for project developers. These factors - coupled with an ongoing investigation on state-run utility Eletrobras, which could result in delays and asset impairments - have brought us to downgrade our forecast for growth in the natural gas, renewables and nuclear power sector this quarter.
-We expect weaker growth in Brazil's natural gas-fired power generation in 2016 and through 2025 as a result of both greater hydropower generation and market dynamics. In particular, in a context of lower power consumption - due to weaker economic growth - our projections for growth in hydr

BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) . . . 7
SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast ...... 11
Brazil Snapshot ....... 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2015-2020) . . . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . . 11
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario . 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Results For Gas-Fired Projects In Latest Power Auctions 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast ... 21
Table: Solar & Wind Capacity Registered And Contracted In Recent And Upcoming Auctions . . . . 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . . 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . . 27
Electricity Consumption .. 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . 30
Transmission & Distribution .... 30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . 33
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . . 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . . 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index ..... 34
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance ..... 34
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) . 40
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards ....... 41
Risks .... 41
Market Overview ....... 43
Key Policies And Market Structure ...... 43
Regulation And Competition ..... 43
Sustainable Energy Policies ..... 44
Pricing . 45
Table: Tariff Surcharges Before And After Reduction . . . 46
Brazil Power Projects Database . 46
Competitive Landscape .... 49
Eletrobras .... 49
Tractebel Energia .. 51
Company Profile 53
Eletrobrás ...... 53
Regional Overview .... 57
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes ..... 57
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 62
Glossary ..... 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 63
Methodology ...... 64
Methodology And Sources . 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 69
Brazil Insurance Report
BMI View: Brazil's insurance industry has continued to grow despite the combined effects of low economic growth and high inflation on the country's wider financial services sector. The core drivers of growth over recent years have been the expansion of the middle class, combined with an ageing population which, together, have supported
Brazil Real Estate Report

View: Brazil's sluggish economic growth, forecasted at 2.8% for 2014, continues to dampen both investor and consumer confidence and weakens its economic position in Latin America. As the host of major sporting events in 2014 and 2016, economists were hopeful about the potential growth opportunities that this would bring. However, industrial prod

Brazil Food and Drink Report
BMI View: The Brazilian consumer faces a dim outlook over 2016, on the back of a deepening recession. A weak economic environment characterised by slow job creation and high inflation will continue to constrain private consumption growth. As a result the food and drink industry will contract in US dollar terms over 2016. Key Trends &
Brazil Retail Report
BMI View: Brazil is in the midst of the largest economic and political crisis in more than a decade. This is having an adverse impact on household incomes and consumer confidence. While a gradual recovery is expected to start in 2017, a weak labour market, elevated inflation and reduced access to consumer credit will continue weighing o
Brazil Tourism Report
BMI View: This quarter will be key for Brazil's tourism market, as we expect the bulk of arrivals and receipts to be centred on the Rio Olympic Games in August. However, after this event we forecast a period of moderation for the industry, with a post-event lull combining with domestic economic weakness to lower demand and investment.

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