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Brazil Renewables Report

Published OnJul, 2016
Pages44
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Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI View: The political turmoil surrounding the impeachment of President Rousseff is not seen to have an immediate negative impact on non-hydro renewables, as the interim government's affirmed its commitment to the sector's development. However, the country's worsening economic recession is expected to threaten projecting financing and could lead to delays in already contracted projects, particularly for solar power, and undermine future project pipelines. Although auctions in the past quarters showed some stability, obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to maintain our conservative overall estimates also in this quarter.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
-For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growth of 9.2% and 16.3%, respectively. While capacity growth is significantly below 2015-levels, generation is increasing from last year's strong growth and the slump in domestic energy consumption levels as the wider economic downturn worsens.
-Brazil's House of Representatives is currently debating a bill (4420/16) that would require large energy consumers in the country to source 20% of their total energy consumption from renewables. The proposed bill is aimed at increasing the share of non-hydro renewable and small hydropower plants. The proposal is based on environmental, energy security and economic grounds.
-D

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario ....... 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends ..... 12
Table: Evolution Of Installed Capacity For Electricity Generation By Source, GW, 2014 And 2024 . . . . 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . 24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) . . . . 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) . . . . 27
Brazil Renewables Projects Database ....... 28
Table: Brazil - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity, MW . . . 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 29
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Index ...... 29
Rewards ........ 29
Risks .... 29
Market Overview ... 31
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure ..... 31
Targets 31
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW 32
Subsidies ....... 32
Infrastructure . 33
Competitive Landscape . 35
Eletrobrás ..... 36
Tractebel Energia .... 36
Vestas Wind Systems A/S .... 37
Acciona 37
Impsa ... 37
Glossary ........ 38
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 38
Methodology . 39
Methodology And Sources .... 39
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 39
Sources 41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 41
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 43
Table: Weighting Indicators . . . . 44
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