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Brazil Agribusiness Report

Published OnSep, 2016
Pages88
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FormatPDF
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI View: We believe that grains production growth over the next five years will slow relative to the preceding five. Soybean production will outpace that of corn, as lower production costs for soybean relative to corn will make the commodity more attractive to grow. However, we see comparatively limited growth out to 2019/20 given the scarcity of area available for expansion, as well as high import costs for fertilisers. We hold a more positive view on the sugar industry now than we have held in the past, due to reforms in the ethanol sector. The eventual return of real weakness will be a net positive for the country's agricultural sector.

Key Forecasts
-Soybean average production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20: 1.8% to 106.0mn tonnes. We see limited growth out to 2019/20 given the scarcity of area available for expansion, as well as high import costs for fertilisers.
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT  9
Industry Forecast  11
Sugar Outlook ..... 11
Latest Updates ... 11
Table: Brazil - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook                   . . 11
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 11
Structural Trends .......... 12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                  . . . . 15
Grains Outlook ... 16
Latest Updates ... 16
Table: Brazil - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook                   . 16
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 17
Structural Trends .......... 17
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                   19
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                  . . . 19
Cocoa Outlook .... 20
Latest Updates ... 20
Table: Brazil - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook                   . 20
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 20
Structural Trends .......... 21
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                  . . . 23
Dairy Outlook ..... 24
Latest Updates ... 24
Table: Brazil - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook                   . . 24
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 24
Structural Trends .......... 25
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                   27
Coffee Outlook .... 28
Latest Updates ... 28
Table: Brazil - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook                   . 28
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 28
Structural Trends .......... 29
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                  . . . 31
Livestock Outlook  32
Latest Updates ... 32
Table: Brazil - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook                  . . . 32
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 32
Structural Trends .......... 33
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                   35
Cotton Outlook .... 37
Latest Updates ... 37
Table: Brazil - Cotton Production & Consumption Outlook                   . 37
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 37
Structural Trends .......... 38
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                  . . . 41
Soybean Outlook . 42
Latest Updates ... 42
Table: Brazil - Soybean Production & Consumption Outlook                  . . . . 42
Table: Risks To Outlook                          . . . 42
Structural Trends .......... 43
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020)                  . 45
Commodities Price Analysis ..... 46
Commodities Forecasts .... 46
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts                   46
Upstream Analysis ......... 48
Americas Machinery Outlook ....... 48
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)              . . 51
Americas GM Outlook ..... 55
Americas Fertiliser Outlook ......... 63
Downstream Analysis .... 70
Food ...... 70
Latest Updates ... 70
Structural Trends .......... 71
Table: Food Sales (Brazil 2013-2020)                       . . . . 73
Regional Overview ......... 75
Competitive Landscape . 81
Table: Main Agribusiness Players                        . . . 81
Demographic Forecast .. 82
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025)                   . . 83
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025)                     . 83
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025)                . . . . 84
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025)                    . . . 84
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025)                    85
Methodology ........ 87
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 87
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 88
Brazil Insurance Report
BMI View: Brazil's insurance industry has continued to grow despite the combined effects of low economic growth and high inflation on the country's wider financial services sector. The core drivers of growth over recent years have been the expansion of the middle class, combined with an ageing population which, together, have supported
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View: Brazil's sluggish economic growth, forecasted at 2.8% for 2014, continues to dampen both investor and consumer confidence and weakens its economic position in Latin America. As the host of major sporting events in 2014 and 2016, economists were hopeful about the potential growth opportunities that this would bring. However, industrial prod

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BMI View: The Brazilian consumer faces a dim outlook over 2016, on the back of a deepening recession. A weak economic environment characterised by slow job creation and high inflation will continue to constrain private consumption growth. As a result the food and drink industry will contract in US dollar terms over 2016. Key Trends &
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BMI View: Brazil is in the midst of the largest economic and political crisis in more than a decade. This is having an adverse impact on household incomes and consumer confidence. While a gradual recovery is expected to start in 2017, a weak labour market, elevated inflation and reduced access to consumer credit will continue weighing o
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