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Brazil Defence and Security Report

Published OnMar, 2016
Pages34
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FormatPDF
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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BMI View: We expect Brazilian defence expenditure to contract in 2016 amid the recession; however, it will remain at around 1.3% of GDP, and return to growth over the medium term as economic conditions improve. Defence spending will be driven by factors such as the country's efforts to reduce crime levels, prevent illegal activities in the Amazon, and contribute to international peacekeeping missions. Brazil has the largest defence budget in the Latin America region, and is able to invest significantly into procurement of military equipment and defence R&D. This enables the domestic defence sector to continue to develop, increasing export potential, and gradually allowing it to capture a large share of the Brazilian MoD's procurement contracts. Over the long term, therefore, we expect defence exports to grow at a faster pace than imports.

Recent Developments
■ We expect a second year of defence expenditure contraction in 2016 amid a worsening recession, as consumers face headwinds stemming from a poor labour market and the fixed investment decline continues.
■ Over the medium-to-long term, meanwhile, with economic conditions allowing defence spending to grow, we expect the Brazilian defence ministry to address a range of its armed forces' requirements to replace ageing equipment. This modernisation effort is likely to involve purchases of new military aircraft, armoured vehicles, warships, submarines and C4 equi

BMI Industry View ... 5
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2020)            . . . . . 5
SWOT  7
Industry Forecast .... 9
Defence Expenditure ......... 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Brazil 2014 - 2019)     . . . . . 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Brazil 2020 - 2025)       . . . . 10
Armed Forces .... 11
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Brazil 2006 - 2013)       12
Defence Trade ... 13
Exports  13
Imports  13
Industry Risk Reward Index ......... 14
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index ........... 14
Table: Latin America - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index  . . . . . . 14
Rewards ........... 14
Risks .... 15
Market Overview ... 16
Brazil Defence Market Overview .... 16
Domestic Defence Sector . 16
Domestic Defence Market  21
Table: Defence Agreements  . . . . . . 24
Brazil Security Overview ... 25
Domestic Threats ........... 25
Regional Threats  26
International Threats ...... 27
Company Profile .... 28
Avibras Indústria Aerospacial SA ... 28
Embraer  29
Forjas Tauras ..... 31
Methodology .......... 32
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 32
Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 33
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators        33
Weighting ......... 34
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index      . . . . . 34
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