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Brazil Autos Report

Published OnJun, 2016
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BMI View: We are further revising down our vehicle sales and production forecasts for Brazil in 2016 withboth now forecast to contract 16.2% to 2.15mn and 2.06mn units, respectively. Added political uncertaintyfrom President Rousseff's possible impeachment is exacerbating the pace of negative falling businessinvestment and rising unemployment in the labour market.

Key Views

-Consumer and business deleveraging of auto loans will continue as company bankruptcies andunemployment increase alongside already high interest rates non-interest costs of credit.
-Heavy trucks remain one of the worst performing segments, given Lava Jato's effects on heavy industryand truck demand and further falls in investment sentiment.
-Exports will grow strongly from 2017 onwards as Argentina's economic recovery gathers steam andraises demand for Brazilian vehicle exports.
-Production cuts will lead to industrial actions by disgruntled OEM workers, raising risks for automakers.
BMI Industry View ....... 7
Key Views ....... 7
SWOT .... 8
Industry Forecast 9
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) . 9
Latest Developments . 9
Structural Trends ..... 9
Passenger Vehicles .. 25
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) . 25
Latest Developments ....... 25
Key Players .. 25
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand, Units . . 25
Commercial Vehicles 26
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) 26
Latest Developments ....... 26
Key Players .. 27
Table: Light Commercial Vehicle Sales By Brand, Units . . . . 27
Table: Heavy Truck Sales By Brand, Units . . . . 28
Table: Bus & Coach Sales By Brand, Units . . . 28
Motorcycles .... 29
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) 29
Latest Developments ....... 29
Key Players .. 30
Table: Motorcycle Sales By Brand, Units 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index ..... 31
Investment Reflects North American Stability ...... 31
Political Turmoil Puts Brazil On The Edge . 32
Central America Most Likely Movers . 32
Regional Overview .... 33
Industry Trend Analysis .... 33
Table: Latin American Autos Production Investment . . . 33
Ford Leading The Charge In Mexico . 35
Suppliers Scramble To Meet Production Starts .... 36
Fiat's Bullish Moves In Bearish Market ...... 36
Brazilian Luxury Production Now In Full Swing .. 36
Chinese Regional Presence Increasing With JAC Investments . 37
Demographic Forecast ..... 38
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025) . . 39
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025) . 39
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025) . . . . 40
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025) . . . 40
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025) 41
Methodology ...... 43
Industry Forecasts .. 43
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 44
Sources 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 45
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 46
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