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Brazil Freight Transport Report

Published OnDec, 2013
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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We forecast that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outpace the Latin American giant's real
GDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continued
growth in the BRIC nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors
will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of
the country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter
of a host of commodities.
Nevertheless there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from
both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our
projected growth rates - and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest
as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.

Industry View 7
Freight Transport 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Rail 15
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018 16
Road 16
Air 17
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018 18
Maritime 18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018 20
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 20
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) 21
Table: Brazil's Main Import Partners, 2005-2011 (US$mn) 21
Table: Brazil's Main Export Partners, 2005-2011 (US$mn) 22
Market Overview 23
Industry Trends And Developments 28
Maritime 28
Road 31
Rail 32
Company Profile 33
LATAM Cargo 33
EcoRodovias 37
Santos Brasil Participações 40
Vale (Logistics) 44
Aliança Navegação e Logística 53
Political Outlook 56
Political Risk Analysis 56
Economy To Dominate Policymaking 60
Table: Political Overview 65
Oil Price Outlook 67
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 67
Methodology 67
Crude Price Forecasts 67
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 68
Variance Across Product Markets 69
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 71
Weak Demand Persists 73
Risks To Outlook 74
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 74
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 75
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 79
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 81
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 83
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 85
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 85
Macroeconomic Forecasts 89
Economic Analysis 89
Demographic Forecast 96
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 97
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 98
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 99
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 99
Methodology 100
Industry Forecast Methodology 100
Sector-Specific Methodology 101
Sources 102

Brazil Freight Transport and Shipping Report
BMI View: The recent corruption scandals at a time of economic contraction have severely hampered economic prospects in Brazil. We are now expecting a 4% contraction in terms of real GDP in 2016,following a contraction of 3.8% in 2015. The road freight sector, accounting for over 78% of freight in the country will tick upwards, albeit negligibly th

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