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Brazil Metals Report

Published OnSep, 2013
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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Metals consumption growth in Brazil will be driven by the automotives, construction and
infrastructure sectors as spending on fixed asset investment under Brazil's Growth Acceleration
Programme accelerates in 2014. We highlight preparations to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016
Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, though the two events alone will not be the predominant drivers of
metals demand. More broadly, we foresee metals demand growth on the back of our forecast for 3.2%
economic growth on average per annum from 2014 to 2017, with growth accelerating over the period.
Consumption To Exceed Production
We believe metals demand will grow, though there are various risks in the short term. After a disappointing
2012 and continued disappointing data into 2013, in which overall economic growth slowed and fixed asset
investment stalled, we see activity picking up in 2014. However, while we believe government fiscal
stimulus policies, namely tax cuts and spending, are likely to continue, we think such efforts will be more
limited than in the past given persistent inflation and deteriorating fiscal dynamics. We forecast inflation
will average 6.2% in 2013, though we expect it to ease in 2014. Persistent inflation has the downside risk of
limiting private consumption. Furthermore, infrastructure projects still face various delays, which presents a
downside risk to our metals consumption and production forecasts in 2014. Still, construction and
infrastructure industry growth should remain solid, averaging 4.3% and 4.7%, respectively, from 2014 to
2017. Although automotive production will not rise as quickly, we still forecast production to grow an
average of 3.5% a year during our forecast period.

Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
Consumption To Exceed Production 7
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Consumption And Production To Grow At Moderate Pace 11
Consumption: Growth Forecast Downgraded 11
Production: More Pain Before Recovery 13
Real Relief For Exporters 14
Table: Brazil - Crude Steel Production, Consumption And Growth, ('000 tonnes) 15
Table: Brazil - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003-2011 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15
Aluminium: Cheaper Electricity To Spur Production 16
Electricity Prices Still Cause For Concern 16
Strong Growth In Consumption 18
Table: Brazil - Aluminium Consumption And Production, ('000 tonnes) 19
Copper: Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 20
Production Growth Seeing Gains 21
Table: Brazil - Copper Consumption And Production ('000 tonnes) 21
Regulatory Development 22
Regulatory Development 22
Tax Regime 22
Corruption Remains Vexing 22
Table: Brazil - Political Overview 23
Commodities Forecast 25
Steel Price Forecast 25
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 25
Table: Steel Forecast 33
Monthyly Metals Update 34
Non-Ferrous Metals 37
Aluminium: Weakness Ahead After Recent Surge 37
Copper: Bounce To Give Way 39
Nickel: Underperformance To Continue 41
Zinc: Weak Steel Sector To Weigh On Zinc 44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 45
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Competitive Landscape 47
Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil, FY2012 47
Energy Costs Affect Aluminium And Steel 48
Company Profile 49
Gerdau 49
Recent Financial Performance 50
Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data 51
Cia Siderúrgica Nacional 52
Recent Financial Performance 54
Table: CSN - Key Financial Data 54
Vale 56
Company Overview 58
Company Strategy 59
Company Details 60
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 61
Methodology 62
Cross Checks 62

Brazilian Metals Group Limited (BMG) - Financial and Strategic SWOT Analysis Review
This comprehensive SWOT profile of Brazilian Metals Group Limited provides you an in-depth strategic analysis of the company’s businesses and operations. The profile has been compiled by GlobalData to bring to you a clear and an unbiased view of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses and the potential opportunities and threats. The profile hel
Casting of Metals in Brazil: ISIC 273
Iron Casting, Light Metal Casting, Other Non-ferrous Metal Casting, Steel Casting. Data coverage:
Coating of Metals and Mechanical Engineering in Brazil: ISIC 2892
General Mechanical Engineering, Treatment and Coating of Metals. Data coverage:
Brazilian Gold Corporation (BGC) - Metals and Mining - Deals and Alliances Profile
Brazilian Gold Corporation (Brazilian Gold), formerly Red Dragon Resources Corp., is an exploration company focusing on the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties. The company principally engages in the acquisition and exploration of number of gold properties in the Tapajos region of northern Brazil. The project portfolio i

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