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Brazil Commercial Banking Report

Published OnMay, 2016
Pages82
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FormatPDF
Cement: 2014 Market Review and Forecast
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"BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.

Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.

Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk te

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators        . . . 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, February 2016     . . . . 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%)      . . . . . 7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016       . 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020      . . 8
SWOT .. 9
Commercial Banking  9
Political ..... 10
Economic ... 11
Operational Risk ... 12
Industry Forecast  14
Table: Brazil - Banking Sector Risk Snapshot        . . . . 16
Table: Brazil - Banking Sector Overview         . . . 21
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . 22
Latin America Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index .. 22
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index     . . . 23
Market Overview . 24
Latin America Commercial Banking Outlook ...... 24
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014. 24
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios, 2016   24
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (USDbn)  . . . . 25
Table: Comparison of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016       25
Economic Analysis . 26
Table: 10-Year GDP Forecasts . 32
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts         . . . . . 32
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts        . . . . . 33
Table: Gross Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts        33
Table: Net Export Forecasts . . . . 34
Competitive Landscape  35
Market Structure ... 35
Protagonists ........ 35
Table: Protagonists In Brazil's Commercial Banking Sector      35
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe ......... 35
List of Banks ....... 36
Table: 50 Largest Banks In Brazil (by total assets)       . . . . 36
Company Profile .. 38
Banco do Brasil ..... 38
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 40
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) . 40
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 41
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 41
Banco Safra  42
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) . 44
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 44
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 44
Bradesco .... 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 46
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) . 47
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 47
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 47
Caixa Economica Federal . 48
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) . 50
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 50
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 50
Santander .. 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 53
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) . 53
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 54
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 54
Regional Overview ........ 55
Industry Forecast .. 55
Global Industry Overview ........ 61
Industry Forecast .. 61
The Reserves Penalty ...... 61
Mixed Results So Far ...... 64
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? ... 69
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent  70
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary         . . 72
Demographic Forecast . 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025)      . . 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025)       . . . . . 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025)    . 75
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025)       . . 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025)      . . . . . 76
Methodology ........ 78
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 78
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 80
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators      . 81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 82

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